Legal by Design: A New Paradigm for Handling Complexity in Banking Regulation and Elsewhere in Law (Lippe, Katz & Jackson)

Legal_By_Design_Dodd_Frank_Resolution_and_RecoveryFrom SSRN abstract: “On August 5, 2014, the Federal Reserve Board and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation criticized shortcomings in the Resolution Plans of the first Systematically Important Financial Institution (SIFI) filers. In his public statement, FDIC Vice Chairman Thomas M. Hoenig said “each plan [submitted by the first 11 filers] is deficient and fails to convincingly demonstrate how, in failure, any one of these firms could overcome obstacles to entering bankruptcy without precipitating a financial crisis.”

The first eleven SIFIs — Bank of America, Bank of New York Mellon, Barclays, Citigroup, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, Morgan Stanley, State Street Corp. and UBS — include some of the largest organizations in the world, with sophisticated internal and external teams of professional advisors. According to Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan Chase in 2013, it took 500 professionals over 1 million hours per year to produce JPMorgan Chase’s annual Resolution plan. With regulatory pressure increasing, that number is likely to be consistent or increasing across first-wave filers, and suggests significant spending by all filers.

So why were the plans criticized despite heavy compliance investment?  The Fed and FDIC identified two common shortcomings across the first 11 SIFI filers: “(i) assumptions that the agencies regard as unrealistic or inadequately supported, such as assumptions about the likely behavior of customers, counterparties, investors, central clearing facilities, and regulators, and (ii) the failure to make, or even to identify, the kinds of changes in firm structure and practices that would be necessary to enhance the prospects for orderly resolution.” We believe this regulatory response highlights, in part, the need for lawyers (and other advisors) to develop approaches that can better manage complexity, encompassing modern notions of design, use of technology, and management of complex systems.

In this paper, we will describe the information mapping aspects of the Resolution Planning challenge as an exemplary “Manhattan Project” of law: a critical enterprise that will require — and trigger — the development of new tools and methods for lawyers to apply in their work handling complex problems without resort to unsustainably swelling workforce, and wasteful diversion of resources. Fortunately, much of this approach has already been developed in innovative Silicon Valley legal departments and has been applied by leading banks. Although much of the focus of the Dodd-Frank Act is on re-organizing and simplifying banks, we will focus here on the information architecture issues which underlie much of what should — and will — change about how law is delivered, not just for Resolution Planning, but more broadly.”

Information Efficiency and Financial Stability

From the abstract: “The authors study a simple model of an asset market with informed and non-informed agents. In the absence of non-informed agents, the market becomes information efficient when the number of traders with different private information is large enough. Upon introducing non-informed agents, the authors find that the latter contribute significantly to the trading activity if and only if the market is (nearly) information efficient. This suggests that information efficiency might be a necessary condition for bubble phenomena—induced by the behavior of non-informed traders—or conversely that throwing some sands in the gears of financial markets may curb the occurrence of bubbles.”  [ HT: Paul Kedrosky ]

Can the Middle Class Be Saved? [ via Atlantic Monthly ]

As I read this article, I ended up just inserting the phase “market for legal services” when the author said something like “the economy” or “the middle class.”  In other words, the legal services industry has a number of the properties present in the overall economy.  Indeed, there are two distinct trends at play – one is cyclical and the other is structural.  The cyclical downturn in the market for legal services is related to broader economic conditions.  Thus, the downturn in demand specifically associated with the broader business cycle will abate once broader economic conditions improve.  The structural portion of the downturn is permanent and those jobs will not return.

Markets are not pleasant places – particularly when a mismatch develops between the skills / products that purchasers demand and the products / skills offered by sellers.  Indeed, while there is an “equilibrium” solution – the question is on what time-scale it will be obtained. In the short to medium term, disruption is likely to be the name of the game. This market is in transition and as such this is a period that simultaneously offers both peril and possibility.  Those who adapt to the conditions, who are entrepreneurial will do quite well.  Others will have great difficulty.  < Transition = peril for some ; Transition = Arbitrage opportunity for others >

As law’s information revolution continues to unfold, place your respective bets on folks who can blend skills such as data science, informatics, computer science / artificial intelligence, engineering, etc. with more traditional law pursuits. There is already some serious income inequality in the legal services market.  There is good reason to believe this gap is likely to expand. Technology is going displace lawyers and the $$ for the displacing technologist will be directly proportionate the #’s of folks he/she displaces.  In this vein, our industry is (unfortunately) just like every other industry.

It is important not to be fatalistic and to emphasize how individuals and institutions can respond. Students with a background in science and technology (rather than say the humanities, etc.) are likely to have a significant advantage in law’s information revolution. Institutions can help level this playing field by offering their students the requisite skills training necessary to be competitive within this new ordering. For example, at my new home – Michigan State University – College of Law – I will be teaching Quantitative Methods for Lawyers – a Winter 2012 course that will help students develop a number of relevant skills ( beyond those in the traditional statistics and the law course ). Indeed, although similar in some respects, I am positive this course will prove to be quite different ( and hopefully better? ) than any quantitative methods course currently offered at an American law school.  Either way, my goal is help put the students who take the course on the path to becoming the skill blender that the market is likely looking to hire.

Here are the modules that I plan to offer in the Winter 2012 course:

 

Modeling the Financial Crisis [ From Nature ]

This week’s issue of Nature offers two brief but meaningful articles on the financial crisis. Here are the abstracts:

Financial Systems: Ecology and Economics (By Neil Johnson & Thomas Lux): “In the run-up to the recent financial crisis, an increasingly elaborate set of financial instruments emerged, intended to optimize returns to individual institutions with seemingly minimal risk. Essentially no attention was given to their possible effects on the stability of the system as a whole. Drawing analogies with the dynamics of ecological food webs and with networks within which infectious diseases spread, we explore the interplay between complexity and stability in deliberately simplified models of financial networks. We suggest some policy lessons that can be drawn from such models, with the explicit aim of minimizing systemic risk.”

Systemic Risk in Banking Ecosystems (By Andrew G. Haldane & Robert M. May): “In the run-up to the recent financial crisis, an increasingly elaborate set of financial instruments emerged, intended to optimize returns to individual institutions with seemingly minimal risk. Essentially no attention was given to their possible effects on the stability of the system as a whole. Drawing analogies with the dynamics of ecological food webs and with networks within which infectious diseases spread, we explore the interplay between complexity and stability in deliberately simplified models of financial networks. We suggest some policy lessons that can be drawn from such models, with the explicit aim of minimizing systemic risk.”