9 Weeks to Go — House and Senate Control as Measured by the Iowa Electronic Market

With nine weeks to go before the 2010 Midterm Elections, it is worth checking in with Iowa Electronic Markets to see where things stand. “The IEM 2010 Congressional Election Markets are real-money futures markets where contract payoffs will be determined by the votes cast in the 2010 U.S. Congressional Elections. “Congress10” (plotted above) is based on the composition of both houses of Congress.”

Take a look at the plot above. You will notice there has been significant movement in the past few weeks. Consistent with the beliefs of a number of pundits, the dominant scenario for 2010 is split control “RH_DS10” (i.e Republican House and Democrat Senate). Whether you view this outcome as good or bad, it is important to emphasize there is still time left and these trends could reverse.