Long time coming for us but here is Version 2.01 of our #SCOTUS Paper …
We have added three times the number years to the prediction model and now predict out-of-sample nearly two centuries of historical decisions (1816-2015). Then, we compare our results to three separate null models (including one which leverages in-sample information).
Here is the abstract: Building on developments in machine learning and prior work in the science of judicial prediction, we construct a model designed to predict the behavior of the Supreme Court of the United States in a generalized, out-of-sample context. Our model leverages the random forest method together with unique feature engineering to predict nearly two centuries of historical decisions (1816-2015). Using only data available prior to decision, our model outperforms null (baseline) models at both the justice and case level under both parametric and non-parametric tests. Over nearly two centuries, we achieve 70.2% accuracy at the case outcome level and 71.9% at the justice vote level. More recently, over the past century, we outperform an in-sample optimized null model by nearly 5%. Our performance is consistent with, and improves on the general level of prediction demonstrated by prior work; however, our model is distinctive because it can be applied out-of-sample to the entire past and future of the Court, not a single term. Our results represent an advance for the science of quantitative legal prediction and portend a range of other potential applications.
When it comes to prediction – law would benefit from better applying the tools of STEM / Finance / Insurance and so in that spirit — our company recently launched LexSemble and it allows for near frictionless crowd sourcing of predictions in law (and beyond). Many potential applications in law including early (and ongoing) case assessment in litigation, forecasting various sorts of transactional outcomes and predicting the actions of regulators, etc. It also has a range of machine learning capabilities which allow for crowd segmentation, expert weighting, natural language processing on relevant documents, etc.
Learn More: https://lexsemble.com/features.html
Thousands of attendees and billions of dollars of commerce on display here at the International Legal Technology Association Conference ( #ILTACON 2016). I was excited to provide the Day 2 Keynote this morning!
Above is my keynote address at the Janders Dean Legal Horizon Conference in Sydney. It is a mixture of some earlier talks I have given – together with some new materials.
Last minute A/V prep for the Chicago Kent – Janders Dean Legal Horizon Conference on July 14th at the Chicago Kent Auditorium.
This is the first conference I have helped organize since the 800+ person ReInventLaw NYC 2014 at Cooper Union and it looks to continue the conversation about #LegalInnovation #LegalServiceDelivery #LegalTech #LegalEdu #LegalAnalytics, etc.
Our speaking faculty includes:
• Scott Curran (Beyond Advisers & Clinton Foundation )
• Kate Johnson (Google)
• Joe Otterstetter (3M)
• Jim Guszcza (Deloitte)
• Lucy Bassli (Microsoft)
• Nicole Shanahan (ClearAccessIP)
• Bill Painter (Baker Donelson)
• Lisa Colpoys (Illinois Legal Aid Online)
• John Fernandez (Dentons/Nextlaw Labs)
• Lisa Damon (Seyfarth Shaw)
• Betsy Braham (ComplianceHR)
• Martha Cotton (gravitytank)
• Jeannette Eicks (Vermont Law – Center for Legal Innovation)
• Jay Hull (Davis Wright – De Novo)
• Ray Bayley (Novus Law)
• Nina Kilbride (Eris Industries)
• Alma Asay (Allegory Law)
• Gail Swanson (18F) + Porta Anitporta (18F)
• Betsy Braham (Neota Logic)
• Dan Katz (Chicago-Kent College of Law + LexPredict)
• Ryan McClead (HighQ)
• Neil Araujo (iManage)
There have been lots of interesting developments over the past two years and I look forward to the 20+ speakers, 1 Stage, No Panels … its should be pretty packed house …
Learn more here: http://chicago.jandersdean.com/#about
In conjunction with Janders Dean International, and SeyfarthLean Consulting we are excited to offer two, half-day educational sessions on July 13th 2016.
Quantified Law Primer (Morning SESSION)
Instructors: Daniel Martin Katz (Chicago-Kent College of Law), Karl Haraldsson (Janders Dean), and Andrew Baker (Janders Dean)
Agile LPM Workshop (Afternoon SESSION)
Instructors: Kim Craig (SeyfarthLean Consulting), Andrew Baker (Janders Dean), and Justin North (Janders Dean)
These workshops are to be held in conjunction with the Chicago Kent- Janders Dean Legal Horizon Conference on July 14th in Chicago. The Legal Horizon event features more than 20+ speakers in a single day, single stage event.
“Our exclusive audience will be a deliberate mix of private practice lawyers, corporate legal champions, public sector standouts, senior knowledge and technology personnel, representatives from the emerging and evolving areas of legal pricing, process improvement, project management and service delivery enhancement, – and educators from leading institutions. We believe that at events such as this one, the best knowledge sharing comes from a delegate community whose job titles have been “mixed up to fix it up”.
We’re pleased to confirm that we have assembled a unique speaking faculty to bring you lessons from both inside and outside of the legal industry. These voices represent consumers and suppliers of legal services, scholars, and individuals dedicated to social justice.
Representatives from a vast range of organizations will present on the day, sharing their experiences on a variety of successes and failures. Delegates will share insights on emerging trends and issues, discuss real successes and failures, and absorb opportunities to transform the practice of law. We aim to give you the inspiration to do something different when you return to work.” Learn More Here – http://chicago.jandersdean.com/