Good Judgment Project – When Will COVID-19 Vaccine Distribution Begin ?

Over on the Public Dashboard of Good Judgement Project, their aggregated SuperForecasters have been predicting a wide range of geo-political and other events including critical questions associated with COVID-19. A key question is When will enough doses of FDA-approved COVID-19 vaccine(s) to inoculate 25 million people be distributed in the United States? Note: For purposes of this prediction — “Compassionate use” and “emergency use” authorizations would count as approval.

Visual Epidemic Calculator

From the Epidemic Calculator – “The clinical dynamics in this model are an elaboration on SEIR that simulates the disease’s progression at a higher resolution, subdividing I,RI,R into mild (patients who recover without the need for hospitalization), moderate (patients who require hospitalization but survive) and fatal (patients who require hospitalization and do not survive). Each of these variables follows its own trajectory to the final outcome, and the sum of these compartments add up to the values predicted by SEIR. Please refer to the source code for details. Note that we assume, for simplicity, that all fatalities come from hospitals, and that all fatal cases are admitted to hospitals immediately after the infectious period.”