Complex Systems in the Social & Physical Sciences – By Bestiario [Repost]
March 10th, 2010
Archive
Author Archive
Gregory Todd Jones — Evolution of Complexity and “Rethinking Individuality” at TedX Atlanta
March 9th, 2010
As a member of the Society for Evolutionary Analysis in Law (SEAL), I have had the oppurtunity to see a number of interesting presentations by Gregory Todd Jones. Gregory is a Faculty Research Fellow and Adjunct Professor of Law at the Georgia State University College of Law as well as Senior Director of Research and Principal Scientist at the Network for Collaborative Problem Solving. Of particular interest to readers of this blog, he is also the founding director of the Computational Laboratory for Complex Adaptive Systems at Georgia State Law School.
Above is a recent talk by Gregory at the TedX Atlanta in which he (1) assembles a model of sustainability based on collaboration and (2) discusses species behavior … from slugs to chimpanzees. If you are interested in learning more … Gregory has launched a really cool blog … Cooperation Science Blog … Check it out!
Is It Real, or Is It Randomized?: A Financial Turing Test
March 8th, 2010
From the abstract … “We construct a financial “Turing test” to determine whether human subjects can differentiate between actual vs. randomized financial returns. The experiment consists of an online video-game where players are challenged to distinguish actual financial market returns from random temporal permutations of those returns. We find overwhelming statistical evidence (p-values no greater than 0.5%) that subjects can consistently distinguish between the two types of time series, thereby refuting the widespread belief that financial markets “look random.” A key feature of the experiment is that subjects are given immediate feedback regarding the validity of their choices, allowing them to learn and adapt. We suggest that such novel interfaces can harness human capabilities to process and extract information from financial data in ways that computers cannot.”
Down to the Wire … The Hurt Locker to Win the Oscar? [Intrade Prediction Market]
March 7th, 2010
It is the final hours over at the Intrade’s Oscar Prediction Market. While many of the categories are runaways, the race for Best Picture is tightening. Will Avatar (click here for chart) or The Hurt Locker (click here or above for chart) prevail? Watch tonight to find out ….
Gary Flake: Is Pivot a Turning Point for Web Exploration? [TED 2010]
March 4th, 2010
Another in the series of talks at TED 2010 …. From the description … “Gary Flake demos Pivot, a new way to browse and arrange massive amounts of images and data online. Built on breakthrough Seadragon technology, it enables spectacular zooms in and out of web databases, and the discovery of patterns and links invisible in standard web browsing.”
The Data Deluge [Via The Economist]
March 1st, 2010
The cover story of this week’s Economist is entitled The Data Deluge. This is, of course, a favorite topic of the hosts of this blog. While a number of folks have already highlighted this trend, we are happy to see a mainstream outlet such the Economist reporting on the era of big data. Indeed, the convergence of rapidly increasing computing power, and decreasing data storage costs, on one side, and large scale data collection and digitization on the other … has already impacted practices in the business, government and scientific communities. There is ample reason to believe that more is on the way.
In our estimation, for the particular class of questions for which data is available, two major implications of the deluge are worth reiterating: (1) no need to make assumptions about the asymptotic performance of a particular sampling frames when population level data is readily available; and (2) what statistical sampling was to the 20th century, data filtering may very well be to the 21st ….
Dissipation and Displacement of Hotspots in Reaction-Diffusion Models of Crime [PNAS]
February 25th, 2010
From the abstract… “The mechanisms driving the nucleation, spread, and dissipation of crime hotspots are poorly understood. As a consequence, the ability of law enforcement agencies to use mapped crime patterns to design crime prevention strategies is severely hampered. We also lack robust expectations about how different policing interventions should impact crime. Here we present a mathematical framework based on reaction-diffusion partial differential equations for studying the dynamics of crime hotspots. The system of equations is based on empirical evidence for how offenders move and mix with potential victims or targets. Analysis shows that crime hotspots form when the enhanced risk of repeat crimes diffuses locally, but not so far as to bind distant crime together. Crime hotspots may form as either supercritical or subcritical bifurcations, the latter the result of large spikes in crime that override linearly stable, uniform crime distributions. Our mathematical methods show that subcritical crime hotspots may be permanently eradicated with police suppression, whereas supercritical hotspots are displaced following a characteristic spatial pattern. Our results thus provide a mechanistic explanation for recent failures to observe crime displacement in experimental field tests of hotspot policing.”
